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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost. In \\\The...
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| 格式: | Printed Book |
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London
Allen Lane
2012
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書本目錄:
- A catastrophic failure of prediction
- Are you smarter than a television pundit?
- All I care about is W's and L's
- For years you've been telling us that rain is green
- Desperately seeking signal
- How to frown in three feet of water
- Role models
- Less and less and less wrong
- Rage against the machines
- The poker bubble
- If you can't beat 'em ...
- A climate of healthy skepticism
- What you don't know can hurt you.