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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost. In \\\The...
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| Médium: | Printed Book |
| Vydáno: |
London
Allen Lane
2012
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| Témata: |
| LEADER | 01871nam a2200169Ia 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 999 | |c 28784 |d 28784 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781846148163 | ||
| 082 | |a 519.542 SIL-S | ||
| 100 | |a Nate Silver | ||
| 245 | |a The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction | ||
| 260 | |a London |b Allen Lane |c 2012 | ||
| 300 | |a 534 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm | ||
| 505 | |a A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to frown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em ... -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you. | ||
| 520 | |a Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost. In \\\The Signal and the Noise\\\, the \\\New York Times\\\ political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider\\\'s tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can use information in a smarter way amid a noise of data - and make better predictions in our own lives. | ||
| 650 | |a Forecasting. Forecasting -- Methodology. Forecasting -- History. | ||
| 942 | |c BK | ||
| 952 | |0 0 |1 0 |4 0 |6 519_542000000000000_SILS |7 0 |9 31508 |a DCB |b DCB |d 2015-09-01 |l 1 |o 519.542 SIL-S |p DCB2387 |r 2018-12-01 |s 2017-12-28 |w 2019-07-19 |y BK | ||