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Black swan : the impact of the highly improbable/
Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
| Hlavní autor: | |
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| Médium: | Printed Book |
| Vydáno: |
London :
Penguin,
c2010.
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| Témata: | |
| On-line přístup: | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-s.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-d.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-b.html |
| LEADER | 02701nam a22002297a 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 020 | |a 978-0-141-03459-1 | ||
| 082 | 0 | 0 | |a 003.54 |b TAL-B |
| 100 | 1 | |a Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. | |
| 245 | 1 | 4 | |a Black swan : the impact of the highly improbable/ |
| 260 | |a London : |b Penguin, |c c2010. | ||
| 300 | |a xxxiii, 444 p. ; |b ill. ; | ||
| 500 | |a "Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007."-T.p. verso. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Prologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible. | |
| 520 | |a Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Uncertainty (Information theory) | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Forecasting. | |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |u http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-s.html |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |u http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-d.html |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |u http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-b.html |
| 942 | |c BK | ||
| 999 | |c 51132 |d 51132 | ||
| 952 | |0 0 |1 0 |4 0 |6 003_540000000000000_TALB |7 0 |9 64553 |a KU |b KU |d 2018-05-08 |e Ad.D2/5736/2013 dtd.24/11/2017 |g 499.00 |l 2 |o 003.54 TAL-B |p MB07357 |r 2020-02-28 |s 2020-01-15 |w 2018-05-08 |y BK | ||